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Ebay - going, going, gone - NOT

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EBay has been stirring things up on blog sites around the world with its recent fee increases and business plan alterations. At this point there is no question it has been insensitive to a large group of angry and frustrated sellers. The unhappy store owners seem to want nothing more than to be heard. So heard they shall be...

I was impressed with the quantity and quality of the comments two days ago when I posted "eBay's message to sellers: Grow or die!" the storm of comments did not die down when I posted a follow-up yesterday: "eBay was revolutionary - now "peasants" are revolting!" If you want the details you can refer back to these posts. Now it's time to move forward.

While sellers have plenty of reasons to be frustrated, they can be sure they are being heard by eBay. When I last checked there were over 600-700 links to my posts. EBay management is getting an earful (and eyeful) given this, and so many other blog sites and editorial pages and direct communications to the company.

Unfortunately, no one should expect a response from eBay. They should get one; they deserve one; but they won't. EBay does not want to change its plans and it does not want to stoke the fire by giving objectors a platform. I, on the other hand, don't mind at all. I think it is important. This Marketwatch story gives a little more insight into eBay's thinking.

We have heard plenty about eBay the company, what about eBay the stock? The stock is currently over-priced from my perspective. Its price-to-sales ratio is four times what I would consider acceptable and its P/E at 33+ is too high for a company now in business for a decade that is reaching out in every direction for growth. On a positive note , it has no debt and huge cash flow so it should be valued at some premium to other companies. Even though I have reservations about the valuation, the stock has been gradually moving up through all the protests, so the marketplace is chiming in that it is apparently not over valued.

I am not impressed with its current return-on-equity (ROE) or return-on-invested-capital (ROIC) in relation to its P/S and P/E... this may be why the have so awkwardly risked the wrath of many of their sellers. Despite all the rants and ill will in the seller groups - it's all about the scoreboard baby!

Retained Earnings 2,716.51('05) 1,634.47 ('04) 856.25 ('03) 414.47 ('02) 164.63 ('01)

Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 11,788.99 ('05) 7,991.05 ('04) 5,820.13 ('03) 4,040.23 ('02) 1,656.99 ('01)

The growth in retained earnings and shareholder equity over the past five years cannot be ignored. If I had more confidence in this growth continuing than I would say eBay is under valued but alas, I do not. I think Asia is a tough market and Skype in the near term is a weight around their ankles.

Regarding Skype: Some say the jury is still out on the eBay purchase of Skype. I say the jury is back! EBay invested about $2.6 billion. Their current ROIC is 12.83%. That means Skype has to generate over $300 million in earnings annually to justify the purchase. AND if they do that they owe the Skype folks even more money; the purchase price was tied to success so they might have to generate over $500 million in earnings to make it right -- anybody see that happening? I don't. They should sell it to one of the telco's while eveyone's eyes are fogged over -- if they still are.

So the eBay saga continues to be worth watching and at some point I may choose to invest and become a shareholder again, but not today. Today I am still more interested in what the buyers and sellers using eBay think. EBay will be around a long time. If they are smart they will listen, learn, adapt, change and grow -- that is my message to the sellers as well.

Disclosure: My investment company has owned shares of eBay (until last January). We have no current position long or short.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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Last updated: November 07, 2009: 11:38 AM

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