Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) shares opened in the red by more than 1% today, but have been regaining ground after laptop maker Compal Electronics Inc. lowered its shipment growth forecast for the second quarter to 10% from its previous estimate of 13-15%. Compal supplies laptops to HPQ, and said a shortage of batteries is responsible for the revised forecast. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HPQ.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.48 in November, the stock hit a one-year low of $39.99 in January. This morning, HPQ opened at $48.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $47.54 and a high of $53.48. As of 12:15, HPQ is trading at $48.15, down $0.12 (-0.25%). The chart for HPQ looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in nine trading days as long as HPQ is below $50 at May expiration. HP would have to rise by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Double-Take Software (NASDAQ: DBTK) products and services enable customers to protect and recover computer files. Its software helps users to reduce or eliminate data loss and recover applications, through automatic or manual means. Customers include law firms, financial institutions, hospitals, school districts and government entities. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are among the firm's strategic partners. EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) and Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) are major competitors.
The company surprised the Street last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of 13 cents and revenues of $23 million. Analysts had been looking for 11 cents and $22.2 million. Management also guided Q2 EPS to 15-16 cents (14 cent consensus), Q2 revenues to $24.4-$25 million ($24.44M consensus), FY08 EPS to 65-67 cents (65 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $101.7-$103.5 million ($102.29M consensus).
LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) designs, develops and markets semiconductors used by original equipment manufacturers in the data networking and consumer electronics markets. It also provides a wide variety of storage systems, sub-assemblies, and storage management software applications. Top clients include Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Sony (NYSE: SNE).
The firm surprised the Street last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of ten cents and revenues of $660.75 million. Analysts had been looking for seven cents and $636 million. Management also guided Q2 EPS to 8-12 cents (seven cent consensus) and Q2 revenues to $650-$680 million ($634.62M consensus). Kaufman Brothers and Caris subsequently declared the stock a "buy". Friedman Billings and Deutsche Securities called it a "hold". All four firms upped their price targets from the range $4.50-$6.00 to the range $6.50-$7.00.
20 Most Profitable Tech Companies Among Fortune 1000 techs, Microsoft remains on top, taking in $14.1 billion in earnings last year. IBM, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard and Intel round out the top five most profitable. 20 most profitable tech companies - FORTUNE
Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS), a top enterprise software player, is striving to supercharged growth with the marvels of virtualization (a technology that gets more firepower from existing resources). Yet, with the slowing economy, things are proving kind of difficult.
This week Citrix announced its Q1 results. Revenues increased 22% to $377 million and net income came to $34.4 million, up 8.5%. Yes, when trying to conquer new technology frontiers, there's a need to ramp expenses (especially for marketing and R&D).
Citrix has an expanding global footprint, which has muted the downturn in the US. Also, the company has a nice assortment of products, such as its GoToMeeting franchise (which is one of the top on-demand offerings in the marketplace).
Still, Citrix is betting heavily on its virtualization technology, which is part of last year's acquisition of XenSource. Indeed, traction, such as with distribution deals with Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) is evident. Citrix was also able to expand its alliance with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
But there is still much to prove to the Street. After all, the marquee virtualization player, VMWare (NYSE: VMW), had a particularly strong Q1.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.
If the financial crisis hasn't crippled banks enough, the cost to build bank loan reserves may be just as painful, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". The need for larger reserves is eating away at earnings and is showing up in first quarter reports for banks such as Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), whose results took an additional hit because of a $6B addition to its loan loss reserve.
Just four months after Journal parent Dow Jones & Co. was bought by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), Wall Street Journal managing editor Marcus Brauchli is expected to resign, according to the Wall Street Journal. Journal publisher Robert Thomson may temporarily take over until a new managing editor is hired.
According to Reuters, activist shareholders in ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) believe, by giving more equity to top managers, that they can boost its value by $1.6B.
Stocks: Where the Big Bucks Lurk A closer look at S&P's list of stocks with big cash hoards and top analyst rankings show these 20 companies are sitting pretty. They include Apple, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Disney, EMC, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, J&J, Microsoft, Oracle, Paychex, P&G to name a few. Cash-Rich Companies
Mom's New Battle: The Food Price Bulge As American families face the double whammy of higher gas and food prices, moms nationwide are resorting to considerable ingenuity to stretch their monthly grocery budget. Beyond clipping coupons, families are embracing generic grocery brands, and making their own baby food and detergent. Soaring food prices elicit creative solutions from moms - CNNmoney
By some measures, China-based search engine Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) has 60% of the search engine market in that country, which now has more internet users than the U.S. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is a distant second.
According to Reuters, "Lee Kai-Fu, Google's president for Greater China, said in an interview that the Silicon Valley company intends to add 200 staffers in 2008 to its existing 600 employees and to keep up that level of hiring for the next three to five years."
All of the effort may not help. The Chinese may prefer to use the services of a company that was founded in their own country and where the search technology was originally based on their language. China has watched U.S. tech efforts from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Hewlett-Packard (NASDAQ: HPQ) come into the country and dominate market share. The capital from those efforts makes it way back to the U.S.
Baidu is one of the few Chinese tech companies that has a huge lead on its Western competition. Many people there prefer it that way.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Although the PC industry keeps churning out growth quarter after quarter, the American market is slipping as a larger influence on all that growth, according to the market research firm IDC. In the latest quarter of tracking data, the U.S. saw just a 3.5% growth rate in shipped PCs, about half of IDC's projection. The reason? According to IDC, the "recession scare" kept PC sales at bay for many corporations as belt-tightening meant less information technology spending.
Global PC sales, though, were above expectations for the most recent quarter, which saw growth come in at over 14% -- a few percentage points above expectations. The European region saw much of this growth, where consumers increasingly opted for inexpensive portable PCs like the Asus Eee PC, similar to the trend the U.S. is seeing. However, these cheaper and smaller portable PCs still make up only a small fraction of overall PC sales.
Although the top spot in quarterly shipments still belonged to Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) -- which grew shipments 17.4% -- Dell, Inc. (NYSE: DELL) saw shipments rise as impressive 21.6% for the quarter as the PC maker continued its comeback after a nasty 2007. Dell's retail presence and emphasis on laptop PCs was heralded as being responsible for its growth as the Texas company remained in the #2 spot in overall sales. In the #3 spot was again Taiwan's Acer, which grew its shipments a staggering 66%. Acer folded in the recent acquisitions of both Europe's Packard Bell and Gateway from the U.S. to hit those numbers, but both acquisitions closed a few quarters ago, so they're not new. In fact, Acer's total shipments were down 20% from the year-ago quarter even though they were highest among the top-five PC makers.
A newly published report by Standard & Poor's said that the performance of organizations such as Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, could directly affect the U.S. economy and the country's credit rating, especially if they have to be rescued by the government, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Credit Markets" column.
Seagate Technology LLC (NYSE: STX), a hard drive maker, filed a patent infringement suit in San Francisco against STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) over four patents related to technology used to store data on computer chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Financial Times reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is allowing private equity groups such as Apollo, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG that are bidding for up to $12B of its leveraged loans to 'cherry-pick' from a wide range of assets with different credit ratings and prices.
A division of Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX), AOL also noted that it will add new content and features in the coming months designed for the Taiwanese audience. Content included right now is Entertainment and Finance, plus a technology channel featuring Engadget in Chinese. It also has a search feature in Chinese, which is powered by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), like the content search elsewhere. It is using Truveo.com for video search.
AOL is developing content partnerships with regional pubs, including United Daily News (udn.com) and Phoenix New Media. AOL is using its worldwide distribution pact in place with Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) to deliver a co-branded local language portal and search site for HP users in Taiwan.
Taiwan is not the last country in the pipeline. AOL has launched 18 country-specific portals and plans to have a total of 30 countries by the end of 2008. The H-P bundling software is one of the key metrics it will be using.
Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ), the world's largest computer maker, has released its smallest laptop PC ever. The new Mini-Note from HP weighs in at just over two pounds, but can run Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows Vista or a freely-available Linux operating system. That distinction is important since HP is making the Mini-Note available in a slew of configurations -- from $500 or so to over $1,200.
HP apparently sees a bright future in the miniature notebook, and will be competing with the Taiwanese computer maker Asus, which released the tiny Eee PC last fall. Although small notebooks, known as ultra-portables, have been around for years, this new Mini-Note is even smaller. Striking a balance between a smartphone and a full laptop, it will be interesting if the popularity of Asus's miniature PC offering will carry over into HP's new product, which is being offered in many flavors. That alone will make the Mini-Note more competitive.
HP's Mini-Note will have one defining characteristic -- a nearly full-size keyboard. Stuffing in a keyboard that's 92% the size of a normal keyboard laptop is no small feat of course, but the screen resolution and weight are nothing to sneeze at either. HP says that "We think the U.S. market will be extremely interested in this," which is probably true for early gadget adopters, students (due to price) and road warriors where weight rules. Could this type of product become a mainstream laptop seller? HP will give it the best shot it can.
Usually, when sovereign funds put money into a company it is simply a financial investment. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) may have unlocked something more. According toThe Wall Street Journal: "Dell said it is in talks with a government-owned entity in Dubai about establishing a joint venture to further increase the personal-computer maker's sales in the Middle East." In other words, the computer company will get value well beyond cash.
For Dell, it is a brilliant move that shows government funds can do more than just write checks. The PC market in the Middle East is large and growing very rapidly.
The US company may have found a template for improving its market share around the world through forming joint ventures with local pools of capital. Dell's growth in many markets has been hurt by the improvement of share by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and the rise of big computer companies Lenovo and Acer out of China. All of these companies need to improve their business in growing markets, like the Middle East and Asia, if they want their earnings to move up.
If the Dell venture in Dubai works, it would be wise to look to sovereign funds in Russia, China, and Singapore for similar deals. Dell's market share in many of these regions is in trouble. Who better than the locals to help them?
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Monday, May 12
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Although the PC industry keeps churning out growth quarter after quarter, the American market is slipping as a larger influence on all that growth, according to the market research firm IDC. In the latest quarter of tracking data, the U.S. saw 
Usually, when sovereign funds put money into a company it is simply a financial investment.
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